“From a student’s perspective, the odds of getting into college are a function of two things: the number of qualified students who apply, and the number of slots that colleges make available. It’s true that the number of prospective college students is growing, as The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal all noted in nearly identical articles published recently. Driven by the baby-boom echo, the number of high school graduates jumped from 2.9 million in 2002 to 3.1 million in 2006, an increase of 8.4 percent.
“But the number of spaces in elite colleges is increasing too, at a nearly identical rate. According to U.S. Department of Education statistics, the 60-odd colleges and universities rated ‘Most Competitive” by Barron’s Guide to Colleges sent out 199,821 acceptance letters in 2002. In 2006, the number of ‘fat envelopes’ had increased to 215,738, an 8.0 percent jump. As the nation has grown, its elite colleges have grown along with it.
“Why, then, the high anxiety? Because college admissions scare stories aren’t based on the overall ratio of admissions to applicants. They’re based on the ratio of admissions to applications, as reported by individual colleges. And the number of applications to elite schools is skyrocketing, increasing 18.9 percent from 2002 to 2006.”
Every spring, the media send a bolt of fear into the heart of the upper middle class. The message is clear: “Your children are never getting into a good college.”
As Ivy League universities report — once again — that admissions rates have fallen to record lows, newspapers rush to publish stories documenting the increasingly “frenzied” (variants: “frantic,” “brutal”) competition among students vying for a coveted slot in an elite school. The stock characters include the tearful student — dreams crushed under an avalanche of rejection letters — the angry parent, the frenzied guidance counselor, and the college admissions official or other expert who notes with grateful wonder, “If I had to apply to my alma mater today, I couldn’t get in.”
There’s just one problem: it’s not true. The declining odds of getting into an elite college are mostly a statistical mirage, caused by confusion between college applicants and college applications.
Hmmmm. Interesting. But I think the number of qualified applicants to our elite universities HAS increased. Ditto the awareness, aspirations and (justified) sense of entitlement to our top schools.
My experience as a local Ivy League admissions interviewer for something like twenty years is better captured by this piece, entitled “Young, Gifted and Not Getting Into Harvard”:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/29/nyregion/nyregionspecial2/29Rparenting.html?em&ex=1178078400&en=781fb3823f86044c&ei=5087
I think Daniel Golden has also exposed some fairly disgusting facts of life in his book “The Price of Admission”:
http://www.randomhouse.com/crown/catalog/display.pperl?isbn=9781400097968
Hmmm….just speculating, but George Bush being president may have something to do with it…..the prestige of an Ivy League education kind of loses it luster when you look at some of the graduates. I heard an admissions person on public radio a few months ago talking about how 40% of the spots in the freshman class at Harvard are reserved for legacy admissions…..I was surprised it was that high and can certainly understand how that might turn off a lot of very intelligent kids who would prefer to go to a school where the majority of the kids are admitted based on merit. Seems like the quality of education might be better at those schools that don’t have so many legacy admissions. I have also heard that it is harder to get into Harvard than it is graduate from there, because once you’re in, the classes aren’t that difficult. But I don’t have any personal experience…like many folks around here, I’m a UW alum.
I guess the size of Harvard’s endowment isn’t surprising given that statistic.