“The reason is demographics”
….. as China’s population is destined to shrink markedly, while the U.S. population will be growing, albeit at a snail’s pace. Furthermore, China’s population will be on average considerably older than the U.S. population, and there is good reason to think that ceteris paribus, older populations generate less wealth than younger ones.90 Finally, the United States can ramp up immigration. It is an immigrant society with a rich tradition of bringing in large numbers of people—many of whom are young. Not only will large-scale immigration fuel population growth, but it will also make the United States wealthier and more powerful. China is not an immigrant culture, which is a major liability in a security competition with a rival that has a growing immigrant population.
In brief, the new multipolarity that came into play in about 2017 is likely to remain in place for the next fifty years of International Security’s history.
