This is the most high school grads Iowa will see for decades
“We’re already one year into the enrollment cliff for every other state,” Pontius told regents, pointing to updated national data projecting the number of high school graduates in Iowa will decline 9% between now and 2041. The percentages in neighboring states: 29% in Illinois, 16% in Wisconsin, 14% in Missouri, and 13% in Minnesota.
This fall’s combined enrollment across Iowa’s three public universities reached 71,520 — which was down half a percentage point from last fall’s 71,872 and 11% from a decade ago.
Aggravating those losses are shifting attitudes and plans around higher ed — with new high school graduates increasingly jumping straight into the workforce instead of enrolling in college.
“As important as these demographic trends are the Iowa high school college-going rates, which have been declining over the last 12 to 15 years,” Pontius said.
In 2024, 61% of Iowa’s high school graduates said they planned to pursue some form of higher education — down from 70% in 2012.
“On the positive side of things, there is some evidence that the 61% rate that we’re seeing is starting to stabilize, and we may be hitting the floor,” Pontius said. “Unfortunately, as we hit that floor, we seem to be now getting to a place where our pool is going to start to shrink.”
