Will artificial intelligence improve workers’ lives, or hand them the equivalent of a pink slip?
It’s one of the most pressing questions facing the U.S. economy today. Companies are pouring money into data centers, rolling out AI tools in their offices and, in some cases, rethinking how many workers they need. Polling finds Americans are more anxious than excited about these developments. At the same time, history has shown that technology can unlock productivity and innovation, fueling wealth and employment.
For answers, we turned to 16 economists—including an economics Nobel winner, academics deeply engaged on questions about AI and former top government advisers—about what they think AI will mean for the economy, workers and workplaces. We asked for bigger-picture thoughts and forecasts, and a mix of multiple-choice questions focused on the next five years. (Not every economist answered every question.)
There’s little doubt AI will boost productivity, economists we surveyed said, and smaller and newer companies should benefit from its growth. But economists diverged when it came to the question that worries many Americans the most: in the coming years, will AI eliminate more jobs than it adds?