In a new research brief, The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Education found that only 44 percent of American high school students expected to earn a bachelor’s degree in 2022, down from 72 percent in 2002. The study also revealed a parental gap among high school students, with only 33 percent of first-generation students aspiring to a bachelor’s degree in 2022, compared to 60 percent two decades earlier. What are Americans, particularly those concerned about the state of higher education, to make of these findings? Are they just one of many societal indicators of an “empire in decline,” or are they more localized signs of a defect in the American system of higher education?
To answer this question, one must first understand that this skepticism is not exactly borne out in the decisions of these young Americans. Data on immediate college enrollment rates of American high school completers—provided by the National Center for Education Statistics—demonstrates a fairly constant trendof high schoolers enrolling in college from 2002 to 2022. Though it is true that 3.2 percent fewer high school graduates immediately enrolled in college from 2002 to 2022, these numbers are rather deceptive.