When Sir John Templeton coined the phrase – “The most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time is different’” – he was not thinking about AI. In fact, Templeton uttered these fateful words in October 1987, just a short time before the Black Monday stock market crash. For nearly the past 40 years, Templeton’s words have been a warning to those who ignore history and precedent and instead assume things may play out differently this time than they have previously – often to one’s financial detriment.
The AI “doomers” have now adopted Templeton’s words, arguing that in fact this time is different. That is, the doomers claim AI will destroy jobs – and potentially destroy civilization – reducing us to a labor-less society in which we will have gobs of free time but without delivering significant enough economic growth to sustain our society.
Ok – I am exaggerating a bit for effect – but the arguments are not far off from this. But let’s focus on the core job destruction argument because that is the key doomer worry – AI will inevitably cause unemployment to spike and standards of living to fall precipitously.
I also understand from talking to many of my OPM colleagues that this is of concern to some of you. It’s completely understandable to feel angst about this topic – impending change often fosters such feelings. My goal with this post is to try offer a historical perspective on the jobs question. I don’t pretend to know all of the answers – and reasonable minds disagree on this topic – but hopefully this provides some food for thought and shows the opportunity we have to better serve our customers and the American people.
A quick disclaimer before we go further. I am trying to make a balanced historical argument in this post, but admittedly I am biased by my experiences. I have spent my entire professional career in the technology industry – as an operator and investor – and believe strongly in the power of technology, both to do well and (in the wrong hands) to facilitate evil. Technology is not the panacea for all of the world’s problems, but I do believe technological innovation is a key factor in our ability to enjoy long-term economic, job and productivity growth, stable economies, consumer surplus, and national security. So, you’ve been warned!