Earlier this month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released provisional data for 2025, showing that the nation’s nearly two-decade baby bust continued, with U.S. fertility rates hitting a historic low. Since 2007, when the so-called birth dearth began, the number of births in the U.S. has dropped by 18%. This means that nearly 718,000 fewer children were born in 2025 than in 2007.
In the long term, this significantly affects public schools because their funding is based on enrollment. And fewer students means less money.
Public schools are already feeling the squeeze of reduced enrollment. Since 2020, national enrollment numbers have dropped to 49,516,361 students — a loss of almost 1.3 million students, or -2.5% — as of 2024, the most recent year with complete data available.
According to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), public school enrollment is projected to decline by another 2.6 million students by 2031, which would mean a loss of four million public school students since 2020. (see Figure 1).