Before fiscal year (FY) 2019, national K-12 public school enrollment was gradually increasing. However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a 2.3% decline in enrollment from FY19 to FY22. Although there was a slight recovery between FY21 and FY22, enrollment remained over one million students below pre-pandemic levels. From FY13 to FY22, there was an overall 1% decrease in public school enrollment. Federal projections suggest this trend will continue, with a predicted 5.5% decline, or 2.7 million fewer students, from FY22 to FY31 (Figure 1). The most significant enrollment declines occurred during the pandemic, affecting 39 states from FY19 to FY22. Notably, 18 states were already experiencing enrollment declines before the pandemic, which only accelerated these trends.
The majority of states are projected to face continued enrollment declines. From FY22 to FY31, 40 states and the District of Columbia are expected to experience enrollment declines (Figure 2). In eight states —California, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and West Virginia — enrollment is predicted to decline by more than 10%.
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Wisconsin is predicting -12.5% by September 2031, almost triple NCES.