It’s hard to predict how the flurry of mid-decade political redistricting will affect the House partisan balance this election year. The betting now is that it might yield Republicans a one- or two-seat gain over what they might have won otherwise. The bigger deal is what happens after the next Census in 2030, and on current trend that’s bad news for Democrats.
If recent trends in population growth and migration continue, the Brennan Center projects that Texas would gain four seats, Florida three, and Georgia, Arizona, Utah, North Carolina and Idaho one each in the reapportionment after the 2030 Census. California would lose four, and New York two. Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island would give up one apiece.
This would give Southern states 164 House seats, which is 19 more than in the 2000s. The Northeast would have 81 seats, down from 92. Progressives portray the South as backward, but then why are so many people moving there from blue states? Answer: a lower cost of living and taxes, higher-quality schools and abundant jobs, among other reasons.
Domestic migration (not including immigration from other countries) to Florida (22,517) significantly slowed this past year and was lower than to Alabama (23,358), Georgia (27,333), Tennessee (42,389) and South Carolina (66,622). The Brennan Center says Florida may gain only two seats if its slower pace of growth continues. Florida’s rising housing prices combined with higher mortgage rates may be slowing migration there.