My favorite paper on this comes from Dan Goldhaber, Malcolm Wolff, and Tim Daly, who looked at how accurate early measures of achievement are in predicting longer-term academic outcomes. In a 2021 paper, they used data from North Carolina, Massachusetts and Washington State and found, “consistent and very strong relationships between 3rd grade test scores and high school tests, advanced course-taking, and graduation.”
The signals are strong enough by 3rd grade that educators and policymakers should act on them. Goldhaber’s team concluded that, “early student struggles on state tests are a credible warning signal for schools and systems that make the case for additional academic support in the near term, as opposed to assuming that additional years of instruction are likely to change a student’s trajectory. Educators and families should take 3rd grade test results seriously and respond accordingly; while they may not be determinative, they provide a strong indication of the path a student is on.”
Unfortunately, math gaps start to show up almost immediately in state testing data. To help visualize this issue, I created the interactive tool below. Users can click on a state to see its average math proficiency rates in grades 3-8. In states that make the data available, users can also sort by specific student groups. The data come via AssessmentHQ.org, which pulls directly from state websites.