On Wednesday we learnt that the UK birth rate has fallen to a record low, joining the US, France, Italy and dozens of other countries this year.
Concern over declining births — long considered an unhealthy hobby of the conservative right — is spreading. It featured prominently in the presentations given by central bankers Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey and Kazuo Ueda at Jackson Hole last week, due to the deleterious economic impacts of ageing populations.
But one section of society that continues to steer clear of the topic is the left. To progressives, worrying about birth rates is an inherently conservative concern. This seems valid enough. Wanting people to have more children can imply constraining individual freedom and setting back women’s progress. More humans also means more emissions heating an already sweating planet.
But take a closer look at the evidence and it’s less clear that the logic holds. In fact, it’s possible that in ceding the floor to the right on this issue, progressives may themselves be ushering in a more conservative, less green future.
Let’s start with the environmentalist argument that falling birth rates are good for the planet. This may appear obviously true, but the reality is less clear