Drastic Rise in Transgender-Related Diagnoses Among Washington Youth
Over the last three years, Manhattan Institute has conducted an analysis of an insurance-claims database to assess the prevalence of gender dysphoria diagnoses and of select gender-transition interventions (mastectomies) in adolescents and young adults. This project is inspired in large part by our belief that empirical gaps make it harder to obtain an accurate picture of gender-related diagnoses and practices—and thus harder to do what is best for young people.
In July, City Journal replicated a Research Connectionsstudy finding that in Oregon, about one in 65 teen girls and one in 200 teen boys received a transgender-related mental-health diagnosis between 2017 and 2023, a rate significantly higher than that of all other states except Vermont.
Finally, a reason to check your email.
Sign up for our free newsletter today.
A new analysis of data from Washington, Oregon’s neighbor to the north, shows a similarly high prevalence of transgender-related diagnoses in minors.[1] A bare minimum of 15,437 minors in the state had a transgender-related diagnosis on their health insurance claims between 2017 and 2023. The true number is almost certainly higher, as the database we use doesn’t include all insurers, and claims for 2023 were incompletely reported. In 2022, 1.73 percent of Washingtonian teen girls (ages 12–17) and 0.8 percent of teen boys had a diagnosis in their insurance claims. Among younger children (ages 8–12), the rates were 0.71 percent for girls and 0.16 percent for boys.
To put this in perspective, the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders(DSM-5), published in 2013, lists the rates of gender dysphoria in adult females as 0.002–0.003 percent and in adult males as 0.005–0.014 percent (noting that these were likely modest undercounts). Even measured against the DSM-5’s highest estimates, the 2022 rate among teen girls in Washington was nearly 600 times greater, and among teen boys nearly 60 times greater. In the 8–12 age group, it was roughly 240 times greater for girls and 11 times greater for boys.[2]
