America’s Colleges Are Hurtling Toward an Enrollment Cliff

Douglas Belkin and Josh Ulick:

Higher education is hitting a demographic cliff. After years of growth, the pipeline of 18-year-olds is dwindling—a result of lower birthrates.

The largest number of Americans born in a single year arrived on campus in the autumn of 2025, and now a falloff is looming. College enrollments are forecast to drop 13% by 2041, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. In some parts of the country—especially the Midwest and the Northeast—the declines have already begun.

You would think a shrinking pool of students would automatically make it easier to get into college. But that won’t necessarily be true everywhere, especially at the most competitive schools, higher-education analysts say.

It is impossible to precisely predict colleges’ admission rates in the future as those numbers depend on a lot of things, including the reputations of campus culture, sports team wins and even the weather. But the demographic cliff is hitting just as another phenomenon is coming into play: a flight-to-quality, where the most sought-after schools are attracting an ever-growing number of applicants, while less-attractive schools draw fewer.

Part of the reason is rising skepticism about the value of a college degree. More families reason that if they are going to spend tens of thousands of dollars, the diploma better pay off with a good job—otherwise why bother?

How large would Gen X, Millennials, and Generation Z have been without abortion?