New York’s ELA scores soared in 2025 and crashed in 2026. The numbers tell us it may be a mistake.
This newsletter typically features state education data releases; today, we’re taking a detour to talk about what is going on with the data from New York. Both because it’s an interesting story, and because it illustrates the value of really paying attention to the data details.
Last week, New York State Education Department (NYSED) released its preliminary 2026 assessment data to schools and school districts. As of this point, only the overall state numbers and New York City details have been made public; we expect full state-level data for 2026 to be released publicly in later this fall. The big headline from our initial look: after very large ELA gains in early grades in 2025, there were equally large declines in 2026.
For example: in grade 3, ELA proficiency rates went from 43% in 2024, to 54% in 2025 and then back to 43% in 2026. At least part of the huge increase in 2025 was publicly attributed to better phonics education, among other things, but the huge reversion in 2026 was attributed to … “we’re looking into it.”
The figure below shows all grades, in NY State and then NY City. The increases and declines are obvious in grades 3, 4 and 5.
The results across NYC schools look very similar – schools consistently increased a lot in 2025, then decreased about the same amount in 2026.
Let me state the obvious: data does not usually look like this. If you’re a reader of this Substack, you see the releases from states as we put them out. Outside of the pandemic, proficiency rates typically move by a couple of percentage points (or less) in a given year. Increases of 4 or 5 percentage points are notable. The huge gains in 2025 here are implausible, and they seem even more so with the decline in 2026.
