U.S. children vs. adults 65 and older: the projected 2029 crossover
For most of recorded U.S. history, children have far outnumbered older adults. The U.S. Census Bureau now projects that this will reverse around 2029, when, for the first time, there will be more Americans aged 65 and older than children under 18.
The shift is not a forecast about a distant century. In 1950 there were almost four children for every older adult. By 2024 the two groups were about 12 million apart and closing. The latest official projection puts the crossover at the end of this decade. This page documents the convergence using the Bureau’s own counts and projections, with the full dataset available to download.
TL;DR — The number of U.S. adults 65+ has risen roughly five-fold since 1950 (12.3 million to 61.2 million), while the number of children under 18 has stayed near 73 million. On the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 projections (middle series), older adults overtake children around 2029 — the first such crossover in U.S. history, and earlier than the 2034 date in the Bureau’s superseded 2017 projections. Eleven states and nearly half of all U.S. counties have already crossed that line.
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How large would Gen X, Millennials, and Generation Z have been without abortion?
No mention of abortion, curiously. Choose life.
