If you follow the national headlines, you will see a familiar story: the United States is experiencing historic declines in births. That is true. But when you move from the national narrative to the regional data, a sharper reality comes into focus. The 2025 population estimates suggest that the 15 county St. Louis MSA is not just participating in this trend, it is emerging as one of its epicenters.
Here are the facts.
Among the 50 largest metropolitan areas, St. Louis ranks number 1 in percent decline in births from 2021 to 2025, at 8.57 percent, tied with Virginia Beach. In absolute terms, St. Louis ranks number 3 in total birth decline at 2,562, behind Chicago at 3,916 and Los Angeles at 4,043. Given the relative size of these regions, that places St. Louis near the top nationally in the scale of decline. In other words, the St. Louis region is experiencing a decline in births like a top tier metropolitan area. Looking more broadly, among the 100 largest met-ros, St. Louis ranks third, behind Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Among the 200 largest metros, it ranks sev-enth. The short term trend reinforces the pattern. From 2024 to 2025, births in the St. Louis metro declined by 1.13 percent, ranking sixth among the 50 largest metros and eleventh among the top 100.
But the longer arc tells the more consequential story.
In 2011, the 15 county St. Louis region recorded 34,821 births. Today, that number has fallen by 7,499 births annually, a 21.5 percent decline. That is not a fluctuation. That is a structural shift. We don’t know the bottom just yet.
The loss of births will show up across every major demographic measure, including declining school enroll-ment, a smaller future workforce, and a population that must support a rapidly aging population. The only way to change this projected decline is through positive in migration, either domestic or international. Many in the region are still operating as if the St. Louis region has 35,000 births per year and will see the same number of children in 2035 as it does today. That assumption is no longer valid. A decline of 7,500 births per year, without in migration, leads to one clear outcome. The 15 county St. Louis region has shifted demographic tracks. It is no longer a region of population stagnation. It is now on a path of population decline. One thing people need to understand, without a reversal in migration patterns, across the 15-county metro area, there will be fewer children under 15 in 2045 than there are today.
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Choose life.
It is interesting to observe the organizations and fund$ that support anti birth and family policies.