“Right now, we only rate 18 out of 435 races as toss ups, which means that less than 5% of Americans will truly be deciding who’s in control of the House,” David Wasserman, senior elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, told NPR.
This disparity in the voting power of Americans in congressional races has been a worsening problem for several election cycles.
Unite America Institute, which tracks what it refers to as the “primary problem” and advocates for election reforms, calculated that in 2024, just 7% voters elected 87% of U.S. House races.
Voters have self-sorted themselves geographically, and technology in recent years has allowed lawmakers to more effectively carve up congressional districts that give one party an advantage over another.
Nick Troiano, executive director of Unite America, said the mid-decade redistricting prompted by Trump last year has further reduced the number of competitive seats. His organization says 32 states currently don’t have a single competitive congressional race.