Children who demonstrated stronger early numeracy were significantly more likely to enrol in advanced mathematics courses in secondary school and more likely to go on to university. Those with weaker early numeracy were more likely to be placed in lower mathematics tracks and were less likely to pursue further education. These relationships remained even after accounting for socioeconomic background, parental education and other early cognitive measures.
This work aligns with earlier research by Greg Duncan and colleagues, who analysed six major longitudinal datasets. Their findings showed that early mathematics achievement was a stronger predictor of later academic success than early reading or attention skills. In their analysis, early maths skills were roughly twice as predictive of later achievement as early literacy.
Together, these studies challenge the reassuring belief that early differences in mathematics will simply wash out over time. Instead, they suggest that early numeracy operates as a structural foundation, shaping future learning opportunities long before students make conscious academic choices.