Beneath the ebb and flow of daily events, a long-term trend is reshaping the U.S. economy and society. Americans lately have been focused on artificial intelligence, but demography is likely to prove equally important.
To maintain a stable population, women need to give birth to 2.1 children on average during their lifetimes. This figure is the “replacement rate.” As recently as 2007, fertility was close to this rate. Since then it has fallen sharply, reaching a record low of 1.6 in 2024.
Over time, this will mean less demand for child care and fewer pupils in prekindergarten through elementary school. Within a generation, it will entail a diminishing number of working-age adults to finance healthcare and retirement for an expanding elderly population. Today’s young adults will likely see the U.S. population shrink over their lifetimes—unless birthrates rise or Americans are willing to accept large inflows of immigrants, principally from African and Muslim countries that have surpluses of working-age adults.
This might seem too far away to worry about. But in many parts of the U.S., the future is now. In areas with older, mainly white inhabitants, deaths exceed births and populations are shrinking.