Warnings about declining public school enrollment have grown louder recently—and for good reason. Between fall 2019 and fall 2023, enrollment fell from 50.8 million to 49.5 million, a loss of more than 1.2 million students, or 2.5 percent, in just five years. The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the decline, erasing more than a decade of modest national growth. But enrollment was already falling in some grades and communities before the pandemic, driven by factors including falling birth rates and shifting family preferences. And the trend is expected to continue: The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projects enrollment will fall below 47 million by 2031.
Yet a FutureEd analysis based on data from NCES, the Center for Disease Control, and other sources, finds that while public school enrollment is declining overall, the trends vary widely by race, grade level, geography, and schools. And that variation offers important insight into how the education landscape is shifting, where the challenges are most acute, and what it means for the future of a public school system designed to serve a larger student population.