Darrin DeChane, Takako Nomi and Michael Podgursky
Standardized tests form the bedrock of school accountability systems and are a primary source of information for the public and policymakers alike. Over the past two decades, these tests also have come to define whether students are on track to being “college and career ready” at the end of high school, in line with state standards for what students should know and be able to do by the spring of each school year.
But many parents and educators have grown skeptical of standardized testing and the relevance of a student’s scores to their long-term success—especially tests given when children are still in elementary or middle school. Some question the typical practice of classifying students into different proficiency levels based on the scores they earned—such as below basic, basic, proficient, and advanced—to help parents and the public understand the results. What can a 14-year-old’s test scores and proficiency levels tell us about college readiness? We decided to find out and designed a study to assess the degree to which middle-school test performance and proficiency level predicts postsecondary success.
Middle-school test scores tell us quite a lot. Students with high scores on reading, math, and science tests in 8th grade are dramatically more likely to earn a bachelor’s degree within five years of finishing high school. We analyzed nine years of data for 260,000 students in Missouri, starting with their 8th-grade scores and following them through high school and the next five years to see which students graduated high school, attended college, and earned a degree. We looked at each subject test separately and in combination, and we looked at students as a whole and grouped by race and gender. Every analysis found the same trend: The higher a student’s middle-school test scores, the more likely they are to graduate high school, attend college, and earn a college degree.