“After noting that many districts don’t seem too concerned with whether the money already spent is doing any good”

Mike Antonucci:

“When the ESSER tap abruptly goes dry, we estimate the average district will have to cut costs by some $1,200 per student in 2024-25.”

Why is that? It’s not a mystery. “Nationally, enrollment is falling while staffing counts are climbing,” Roza explains. “Fewer students usually means a smaller staff, but many districts have used their relief funds to both hold on to existing employees and add more in the form of new counselors, reading specialists, nurses, etc.”

While there will be plenty of trimming on the margins, labor costs constitute the overwhelming share of district budgets, and that’s where the axe will ultimately fall. That means layoffs, and union seniority rules dictate that most of those laid off will be the folks we’re in such a frenzy to hire now.

What Roza doesn’t predict, but which is equally assured, is the uproar this will cause among teachers unions. They will not view the coming lean years as the inevitable outcome of using one-time funds for l0ng-term commitments. Instead, they will be depicted as draconian cuts, and the narrative will abruptly shift from catastrophic teacher shortages to catastrophic teacher layoffs.