The upshot is that, if you bet against the long-term success of any given school reform or educational innovation, you’ll generally be right at least 80% of the time. Hell, if you could bet on this stuff at Vegas sportsbooks, edu-skeptics would be laughing all the way to the bank.
So, for me, a crucial but oft-ignored question is this one: Given the track record, why is it so easy to find enthusiasts eager to leap aboard each new reform train?
Well, it turns out that there are a lot of rewards for jumping on board—even if the train is headed off the rails—and precious few rewards for refusing to do so. Embracing the promise of the new new thing means lining up shoulder-to-shoulder with enthusiastic funders, vendors, experts, and school and system leaders confident that this time we’re going to get it right.