This means that states are competing for a limited resource: the people that comprise their tax base. And many states are losing the fight. Between 2019 and 2020, 24 lost more Americans than they gained. Over the past decade, Illinois, Mississippi and West Virginia saw their populations decline. The implications for funding pensions and public education could become dire, and make living in shrinking states even less attractive for younger people, who will finance those debts. Growing states such as Texas and Florida will have an economic advantage.
They will also influence the country’s politics. Texas, Florida, Colorado, Montana, Oregon and North Carolina all gained population, and therefore congressional seats, while seven states, including New York and California, lost seats. According to the 2020 Census, the South now has ten of the country’s 15 fastest-growing cities with a population of 50,000 or more. Some 62% of Americans now live in the West and the South, compared with 48% in 1970. The share residing in the Midwest and Northeast has fallen from 52% to 38% over the past 50 years. The impact of these shifts will cascade: congressional seats, federal funding and electoral-college votes are all apportioned to states based on population size.