n the long term, the largest driver of the national debt are entitlement programs that run on autopilot, without needing to be renegotiated as part of each new congressional budget. In fiscal year 2016, $2.47 trillion of the federal government’s $3.66 trillion in non-interest expenses—in other words, 67 percent of every dollar spent that wasn’t going to payments on the national debt—went toward “mandatory spending” on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Within a decade, those three programs will consume $4.14 trillion annually, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Congress, meanwhile, can hardly scrape together the votes for a months-long continuing resolution. Even with full Republican control, passing an actual budget—a budget that would affect only that other 33 percent of federal spending—seems like an impossible dream. Tackling entitlement costs will be an even bigger fight.
Trump’s refusal to acknowledge the debt last night was on-brand for him. During the campaign, he rarely talked about entitlements except to make promises about saving Social Security. He meant that he would protect the national pension program from cuts, but anyone serious about “saving” America’s entitlement programs should recognize that insolvency is a bigger threat.
And that’s true not only for entitlements, but for the entire economy.
“Large and growing federal debt over the coming decades would hurt the economy and constrain future budget policy,” the Congressional Budget Office warned in March of last year. “The amount of debt that is projected…would reduce national saving and income in the long term; increase the government’s interest costs, putting more pressure on the rest of the budget; limit lawmakers’ ability to respond to unforeseen events; and increase the likelihood of a fiscal crisis.”