New RSS survey tests statistical skills of MPs

Royal statistical society

A survey by the RSS has found that just over half (52 per cent) of MPs were able to answer a simple probability question correctly, a likely improvement from when politicians were asked the same question ten years ago.

As politicians over the course of the pandemic have dealt with a barrage of statistics, the Society decided to put their statistical skills to the test. A total of 101 MPs were asked the question: if you toss a coin twice, what is the probability of getting two heads? Just over half, 52 per cent, of MPs gave the correct answer of 25 per cent.

This is a likely improvement from when the RSS polled MPs with the same question ten years ago, when 40 per cent of MPs gave the correct answer.

In this latest survey conducted by Savanta ComRes on behalf of the RSS in late 2021/early 2022, 32 per cent of MPs gave the incorrect answer of 50 per cent, compared to 45 per cent of MPs in the 2011 survey.

Of those asked in the most recent survey, there was a modest estimated difference between MPs from the two main parties. In the survey, 50 per cent of Conservative MPs gave the correct answer, while 53 per cent of Labour MPs were right.